We probably wouldn’t get an answer either way, at risk of any answer potentially jeopardising the application/reviewal process. I’ve read through the program some more since posting my question and it looks like the results are due soon anyway, so we’ll find out what the outcome is shortly in any case. I’m hopeful. Let’s sit tight.
Those examples don’t really prove much yet. .near and .sui showing up on ICANNWiki just means someone publicly disclosed applications for those strings - it doesn’t mean NEAR did. Just look into Link Freedom Group (the ‘.near’ applicant, and you’ll see exactly what I mean).
There are companies that apply for large portfolios of TLDs as a business strategy, so some of these could simply be domain/registry speculation rather than “official” protocol applications.
Until ICANN publishes the full applicant list on 7 October, the absence of .icp isn’t meaningful either. We just don’t know yet