For the purposes of this post, “DFINITY” or “the foundation” refers to the DFINITY foundation’s interests, and not necessarily those of the ICP protocol or community.
TLDR (Opinion)
I believe the current reason that the DFINITY foundation has chosen to not pursue transferrable NNS neurons is TVL, and not a 51% attack, as has been stated in the past.
TVL, or Total Value of ICP locked in the NNS has a significant impact on the price of ICP. DFINITY is the single largest holder of liquid ICP.
If existing investors are allowed to transfer their neurons, this could potentially put downward pressure on TVL, locking up less ICP and making it harder for the foundation to sell its ICP at a good price.
What is TVL, and how is it affected by canister controlled neurons?
TVL, or Total Value of ICP locked up in the NNS, is a key goal for the DFINITY Foundation. A higher TVL means less liquid ICP.
Less liquid ICP == increased price of ICP == good for the foundation (DFINITY moves an average of ~720k ICP per month, or 5 million USD equivalent).
Removing canister controlled neuron restrictions has, in the short-term boosted TVL by locking significant liquid SNS treasury ICP in either SNS canister-controlled ICP neurons, or in the WTN DAO. At this point in time, the WTN SNS and nICP liquidity bootstrapping event has locked up close to 1 million ICP.
If DFINITY allowed existing investors to control and trade their NNS neurons, this would provide an alternate avenue for people to buy ICP. While benefiting NNS investors, transferring NNS neurons would counteracting the TVL goals of the foundation - locking up less ICP and making it harder for the foundation to sell its ICP at a high price.
Background
In late June, DFINITY introduced a proposal to relax canister controlled neuron restrictions, voting later to pass it (with 92% of NNS VP) right before Waterneuron’s SNS Swap (swap started 6/27, ended 7/3).
At that same time, I published a proposal to allow NNS neuron owners to transfer controller of their neuron. I strongly believe that solely providing neuron transferability to canister developers, and not to existing NNS investors, creates a two-tiered system wherein canister controlled neurons become more valuable than “legacy” neurons controlled through the NNS.
Impact of allowing canisters to control neurons: Since the relaxation of canister controlled neurons and the launch of Waterneuron, almost 1 million ICP has been locked up in two canister controlled neurons, both controlled by the Waterneuron DAO over the past month. Many in the ICP community now exclusively choose to invest stake ICP to nICP instead of the through NNS.
The 51% Attack
At Genesis DFINITY mentioned a 51% attack as the primary reason why canisters were originally prohibited from controlling neurons.
DFINITY Does Not Believe a 51% is Likely
DFINITY has made several changes to neuron transferability and voting power over the past year, suggesting they believe that a 51% attack is not immediately likely or a high risk outcome in either scenario. These changes include:
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Relaxing restrictions on canister controlled neurons, with a suggested threshold that could trigger mitigation measures if canister controlled neurons exceed 10% of VP. These mitigation measures are “difficult to implement”, and so they aren’t be considered immediately important (until the threshold is hit or an issue arises)
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Introducing a Periodic Confirmation proposal that reduces the VP of inactive neurons. If implemented, this proposal is expected to reduce the passive VP following DFINITY by a larger amount than other neurons that vote on all topics. DFINITY currently holds 92-99% of VP on all topics other than governance and SNS, and some estimate that the upcoming Periodic Confirmation proposal will reduce that to ~80%.
Needless to say, we are 3 years past genesis and the only body holding enough effective voting power to make a 51% attack is DFINITY - by far. Technically, by holding and voting with over 90% of effective voting power, one could state that DFINITY has been making “51% attacks” on the network several times a week since genesis.
DFINITY Does Not Believe a 51% is Likely…from a non-DFINITY entity.
So then why does DFINITY choose implement certain neuron and VP transfer proposals, but deflect NNS neuron transferrability, when the only entity with enough internal NNS voting data to make informed decisions on the subject is…DFINITY?
TVL
If you talk to anyone within DFINITY, TVL, or total value of ICP locked in the NNS, is one of the foundation’s top growth goals.
From a distance it makes sense - locking up value makes the protocol securing that value more valuable.
In the specific case of canister controlled neurons and the Waterneuron project, by offering liquid staking to new ICP investors and not original or legacy neurons, this presents a favorable opportunity for investors to choose to stake in “transferrable” ICP. Many that were holding liquid ICP have locked their ICP, and/or are dissolving with the intention of moving that ICP to canister-controlled ICP.
More ICP locked up == increase in TVL.
While it would be easy for DFINITY to update the NNS to allow existing “legacy” investors to transfer neurons, allowing this would provide an alternate avenue for people to purchase ICP via NNS neurons.
If DFINITY were to provide more flexibility for original long-term NNS investors, this would counteract the TVL goals of the foundation, locking up less ICP overall.
As DFINITY is the largest holder of liquid ICP, less TVL makes DFINITY’s ICP holdings less valuable.
Less ICP locked up == downward pressure on TVL == harder for the foundation to sell its ICP at a high price.
New Investors don’t need “Skin in the Game”
If anything, legacy investors, or those that locked their ICP in the NNS and supported DFINITY since genesis have the most skin in the game. Those who convert their ICP into nICP via Waterneuron receive rewards while retaining tokenized transferrability. And those who hold WTN receive both NNS ICP rewards, and amplified NNS voting power through fractionally shared control of how the 8 and 6 year WTN neurons vote.
Questions for DFINITY
What blockers exist in the way of supporting transferrable NNS neurons?
Given that DFINITY controls 92% of effective VP, is there any data showing that transferrable NNS neurons pose a risk to the NNS? Is this risk greater than the combined implementation of canister controlled neurons + periodic followee confirmation?
Just like with canister controlled neurons, can DFINITY implement the feature but with mitigation measures? For example, put in place monitoring to see how much VP is transferred by NNS neurons. If this exceeds a certain desired threshold, turn off the feature.