Tokenomics series: Projecting the total supply of ICP

jglassemc2, thank you for the reply!

I don’t think that any model does matter in this situation.
The only thing that matters is the speed of IC adoption by users. If the cycle burn rate will increase each year by a factor of 4.76 for foreseeable future (as bjoernek assumed) we will be OK. But I am afraid that it is not the case. I am afraid that ICP price is heading below $1 where inflation generated by node rewards is so high that the tokenomics will enter into a death spiral and hyperinflation. Moreover, I have no information who and how funds dfinity existence. Do they sell ICP in the market along with the node providers? Is there a probability that they will lose its funding source and cease to exist?
So the key thing is IC adoption and great IC projects. Unfortunately I can’t see great projects on IC yet… But I believe in IC and wish it good luck!


I notice an abundance of promising projects, but their adoption rates are quite low.

The negative publicity surrounding price manipulation related to #FTX / #SFB has notably impacted retail buyers’ perception of the project.

Seeing a chart that appears to emulate a ‘Pump and Dump’ rugpull scenario doesn’t make it easier to win back confidence.

I’m a strong supporter of ICP, and I’m planning to start a project on it this coming September. However, it will be targeted towards institutions, not retail, and therefore there won’t be any token sales.

I’m aware that @dfinity is heavily invested in L1 work. Nevertheless, I’m hopeful that they will complete the ETH/ERC20 integration shortly and incorporate it into NNS and enable users to expediently and economically transfer their ckBTC, as well as ckETH/ERC20 tokens.

I anticipate that the next peak of the bull market will occur around 2025/2026. During this period, I expect ICP’s value to rise to over $50. This would subsequently decrease the prevailing inflation rate due to node providers, who typically achieve their return on investment within a 36-month timeframe.

Personally, I believe the staking APYs are excessively high. I understand the need to incentivize people, myself included, but it’s unfortunate that altering it now is difficult.

Given a choice, I would lower it to a maximum of 5% per annum for an 8-year lock-in period, with the maximum dissolution time (proportionally reduced for rest). On the whole, it would be advantageous to limit the dilution of tokens. ICP’s total supply has hit 500 million, with its circulating supply increasing from 123 million to 430 million - a 3.5-fold increase since 2021.

Here’s a hopeful thought: an immensely popular dApp could drastically burn through the cycles. I once came across a statement suggesting that if a platform as heavily trafficked as TikTok were to run on ICP with its current user base, it would deplete all available tokens within just three days.


want to see further talk.

1 Like

Is this tokenomics working all right? why the pricing is falling like waterfall if it is working ok? May need to reconsider it, dear 270+ scientists!:smiley_cat:


This theory assumes that dapps that have been deployed on ICP will not disappear (burn accumulation), but this is unlikely to be realized. Most dapps will stop updating because they are unprofitable without users. If (this is just a hypothesis), openchat (the largest token burner) fails, then the burning rate of ICP will drop rapidly or even return to 0. Then the above model does not take into account this extreme event (sometimes it does happen).

1 Like

It’s to up projects to create applications that attract users.

1 Like