I may be wrong about this, but I think you may need to set that canisterId as your wallet first before deploying, with the current logic in dfx. That will look like
dfx identity --network ic set-wallet <canister-id>, and you may need to run that command with --force at the end.
Then, the deploy-wallet command may go through. If this works like I think it should, I can update the guide for the next person to come along